Robert Brown|Gas prices are on the rise again. Here's where experts say they are going next.

Budget-conscious motorists may want to fill up sooner rather than later,Robert Brown as prices at the pump are likely headed higher in the near term. 

The approach of the peak driving season and the annual switch by refineries to more costly summer gasolines has driven up the national average for unleaded to $3.63, according to AAA.

Prices have been edging higher, with motorists on average paying six cents more per gallon than a week ago and 23 cents more this time last month. Still, the cost of filling up is in line with where motorists and their wallets stood a year ago, when a gallon of unleaded came to $3.61, AAA data shows.  

"They are following a similar pattern to last year — maybe they rose a little quicker" due to the global conflicts roiling the oil patch, as well as a bump in demand due to people driving to prime viewing spots to see the solar eclipse, Andrew Gross of AAA told CBS MoneyWatch.

"This is a weird time because we have two wars going on, and the oil market is very wary of that," said Gross. "The oil market is very volatile and doesn't like the potential for bad news, or any worries that the war could widen to include oil-producing countries," he said.

The cost of gas proved to be a large factor in the surprise jump in inflation last month — a trend that is likely to persist in April, experts told CBS MoneyWatch. Paying to keep vehicles running and a roof over one's head accounted for more than half the March rise in the consumer price index, which rose 3.5% last month from a year ago. Gas prices increased 1.7% from February to March, the government data released on Wednesday showed.

Why are gas prices rising?

Underlying the higher costs of gas are routine factors including refinery maintenance, the switch to summer gasoline and rising demand. 

"The West Coast is likely to see gas prices continue to jump, and in a week or so, will be joined by the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states as they wrap up the transition to summer gasoline," GasBuddy noted Monday in a blog post.

Domestic supply is also impacted as refineries take advantage of milder weather conditions to do necessary maintenance. "Refineries are so dangerous, you have to maintain these places, as there are a million things that can go wrong," said Gross. "They don't like extreme heat or cold, so spring and fall are a sweet spot for refineries and workers. You don't want anyone dealing with petrochemicals in 100 degrees."

Added to the mix are geopolitical factors, including the Russian-Ukraine war and Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, which has spurred the price of oil to six-month highs.

Anytime crude is trading in the mid-80s it starts to put pressure on domestic gas prices, as oil is the main ingredient, according to AAA's Gross, who noted West Texas Intermediate's return Friday to above $87 a barrel. "That's an uncomfortable area for gasoline prices, as it accounts for 60% of what we pay at the pump," he said.

U.S. intelligence that Iran is preparing to retaliate for the Israeli attack early last week on an Iranian consulate in Syria is among the developments keeping the global commodities market on edge. 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has urged Ukraine against further attacks on Russian oil refineries, citing the risk to global energy markets, the Biden administration official told Congress on Wednesday.

Gas prices are averaging $5.44 a gallon in California and at or topping four bucks a gallon in seven states, including Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, according to AAA. The least expensive gas can be found in Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi, where a gallon is averaging under $3.20. 

In:
• Gas Prices

Kate Gibson

Kate Gibson is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch in New York.