PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Concerns for playoff contenders lead college football Week 7 overreactions

We’re going to do PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerthings a little differently this week here at college football overreaction headquarters.

The sheer number of games in Week 7 that came down to a play or two should demonstrate just how truly razor thin the margin between victory and agony is in this sport. Yet observers on both sides of such results tend to ascribe more significance to them than is often warranted. Heck, sometimes even fans on the winning side of such nail biters often feel like their favorite team is on the brink of a catastrophic letdown.

So with the season now at the halfway point, we’ll look in on a few choice locales around the sport and assess whether it’s truly panic time. We’re going to concede that teams that have already lost twice are already in full-on crisis mode – waves to Oxford, Mississippi, Norman, Oklahoma, and Salt Lake City –, and concentrate on playoff contenders that may or may not have just cause for concern.

Columbus, Ohio

Ohio State fans have long been known for calm rationality when things don’t go as planned. Yeah, just kidding. But seriously, Buckeye Nation, this wasn’t that bad.

Sure, it would be nice to see a Ryan Day led team actually execute a last-minute drive with the game on the line. But if Ohio States gets another crack at Oregon, which seems quite likely, it will be on a neutral field. That should mean the Buckeyes will be able to eliminate the false starts and other glitches directly attributable to playing in hostile environs.

There’s another rather serious road test coming in a few weeks – more on that one below – and if something similar unfolds in the closing minutes of that one it might be time to consider this a bad trend. For now though, all the Buckeyes’ goals are still attainable.

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Athens, Georgia

Georgia won its last two games since the loss at Alabama, but Bulldogs’ fans still saw plenty they didn’t like from the team even in victory. The Bulldogs weren’t in any real danger of losing either game, but they took well over a half to put Auburn away, and they surrendered over 300 passing yards to a Mississippi State squad that is winless against Bowl Subdivision competition. There were signs of trouble even before the Alabama game when the UGa offense did next to nothing in a one-point escape at Kentucky. With different units struggling at various times, a trend that seems to indicate a troubling lack of attention to detail, Dawgs’ faithful are wondering if the team is ready for next week’s road date with No. 1 Texas.

A victory in Austin, of course, would knock the Georgia panic meter back down to 0, approximately where it was following the dominant win against Clemson in the season opener. But the lack of a complete performance since then is rightly worrisome.

State College, Pennsylvania

After a miserable first half at the L.A. Coliseum had Nittany Lions’ fans in the depths of despair, the team’s rally and overtime escape from the Trojans was probably more akin to relief than elation. Drew Allar and Co. made the key plays when needed, but it’s still fair to wonder if the Lions have the big-play weapons to match the likes of Ohio State, whom they’ll see in three weeks, or potential Big Ten finale opponent Oregon.

For now, though, supporters should take heart from getting to 6-0 and enjoy the upcoming week off. Of course, they would then like to see a drama-free trip to Wisconsin before the Buckeyes come calling.

Tuscaloosa, Alabama and Knoxville, Tennessee

The good news for Alabama and Tennessee is one of them will get an important win next week. The loser of that game, however, will be in full-on panic mode, and it will almost certainly be justified.

From an outsider’s perspective, what makes the coming clash intriguing is it will be the struggling units opposing each other. The Crimson Tide’s inability to get third-down stops nearly did them in again, but the Volunteers’ offense has been average at best since SEC play began. It’s a reasonably good bet that those groups will lead to much angst from the followers over the next seven days.

Big 12 headquarters

As the clock ticked away on Utah’s second consecutive loss in the wee hours Saturday morning, all but eliminating the perceived favorite from the Big 12 title picture, a few posters on various internet platforms were pondering the possibility that the eventual champion from the ‘oversized dozen’ might not be among the four highest-ranked FBS conference winners. That theoretical scenario would leave the door open for a Group of Five league champ to snag a top-four seed and first-round bye in the expanded playoff field.

Could it happen? It's not out of the question, but Iowa State and Brigham Young keeping their respective records unblemished with little consternation later on Saturday helped alleviate such concerns. The league race is still wide open, but there shouldn’t be any anxiety at the conference office just yet.