NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Campus protests across the US result in arrests by the hundreds. But will the charges stick?

Hundreds of U.S. college students arrested this week while protesting the war in Gaza face criminal charges amid encampments,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center building takeovers and civil unrest. But how those charges play out - and whether they will stick - remains a key question.

On Tuesday night, New York police arrested nearly 300 people at Columbia University and the City College of New York. A day earlier, clashes with protesters at the University of Texas in Austin resulted in 79 arrests. Tulane University said 14 protesters were arrested at an "illegal encampment" on the New Orleans campus. And officers made at least 70 arrests late last week and over the weekend at Arizona State University.

But scores of cases at other universities have already been dropped. In Texas, Travis County prosecutors dropped charges against 57 people arrested on the Austin campus last week. Travis County officials said the arrests, all on charges of criminal trespassing, lacked probable cause.

Experts say prosecutors will need strong evidence to gain convictions - if the cases even get to trial or even past initial court appearances.

Richard Serafini, a South Florida criminal defense attorney and former prosecutor at the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, explained that with hundreds of arrests at a mass protest, prosecutors still “have to be able to have the evidence” against each individual arrestee. 

“You can’t charge someone who just happened to be there,” he said.

Given the sheer number of people arrested, Serafini said it would not surprise him if many of the charges were later dropped. “It’s not unusual” in circumstances such as this, he said.

Addressing the statement by New York officials that they were attempting to rid the Columbia University campus of "outside agitators," Serafini cautioned that as a prosecutor, “you look at what the person does, you don’t look at their status.”

Throughout U.S. history, charges against protesters have typically fallen off court dockets. For instance, over 2,000 protesters were arrested nationwide following George Floyd’s death in May 2020 at the hands of police officers in Minnesota; only a handful of those charges were prosecuted, with the majority of them dropped.

Floyd's death focused worldwide attention on policing and sparked protests, but prosecutors were reluctant to press forward with charges in the vast majority of cases against people who argued they were simply invoking their rights to free speech and civil disobedience.

Latest arrests at Columbia; authorities point to outsiders

The sweep of arrests on Columbia University's campus on Manhattan's upper west side came after officers broke into and cleared Hamilton Hall, a campus building where demonstrators had barricaded themselves for hours.

At a news conference Wednesday, New York City Police Department Chief of Patrol John Chell said 282 people associated with the protests at both Columbia and around 20 blocks north at the City College of New York had been arrested.

Police said they had not yet determined how many of those arrested are enrolled students. It remains unclear whether non-students may face tougher punishment than students.

Speaking at the news conference, New York City Mayor Eric Adams claimed many of those behind the protest were "outside agitators" who had no association with the university. Young protesters “are being influenced by those who are professionals at radicalizing our children,” Adams said.

On Tuesday, a day after law enforcement broke up an encampment at the University of Texas, administrators said that 45 of the 79 people arrested during the clash had no association with the university.

"This is calculated, intentional and, we believe, orchestrated and led by those outside our University community," the administration wrote in a statement.

Out of 14 arrests made by the New Orleans Police Department and Louisiana State Police on the Tulane University campus on Wednesday, only two were students, the university said in a statement. Another six people, including one student, were arrested at protests on the campus on Monday.

"The overwhelming majority of the protestors are unaffiliated with our community," Tulane administrators wrote.

Students to be arraigned

Charges against those arrested at Columbia and CCNY range from trespass, to criminal mischief and burglary, NYPD Commissioner Edward Caban said. In New York, burglary is a felony charge.

Late Wednesday night, the first arrests from the protests at Columbia and the City College of New York began to be arraigned at the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse, the same building where former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial is underway.

Outside the court’s arraignment area, dozens of the protesters’ supporters gathered in the halls, many of them wearing keffiyehs. The mood was jubilant, and many were chatting or conferring with each other in small groups.

When one protester exited the courtroom after his arraignment, he was quickly swarmed by friends and dropped to the floor in a brief moment of celebration.

That protester, who was at the City College demonstrations, had been charged with assaulting a police officer, a felony, and resisting arrest. However, the prosecutor handling his case recommended to the judge that he be released from jail while police “continue to investigate” the incident.

Protesters arrested at Tulane on Monday could face charges of trespassing, resisting arrest and battery on an officer.

And 69 people arrested at Arizona State University's campus early Saturday were charged with criminal trespassing after an encampment stayed up past 11 p.m., breaking a university policy that prohibits demonstrations on campus during the hours of 11 p.m. to 5 a.m., the Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, reported.

Advocates raise questions about arrest tactics

Tactics used by police to quash the demonstrations and make arrests raised concerns in some advocates.

Police called to the Austin campus pepper sprayed demonstrators and dragged some away from an encampment formed shortly after a vigil for students in Gaza held on the campus, the American-Statesman reported.

Some protesters at Columbia and CCNY sustained injuries after NYPD officers reportedly used pepper spray, threw students to the ground, and even drew weapons on them, according to the New York Civil Liberties Union.

"Repressing nonviolent demonstrations with police in tactical gear has put students, faculty, and protestors in harm’s way," the organization said in a statement released on Wednesday. "The police presence we saw last night was overwhelming."