Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|NFL hot seat rankings: Which coaches could be fired after Raiders dropped Josh McDaniels?

The Surpassing Quant Think Tank CenterNFL almost made it to the midseason point without a coach being fired.

On Tuesday night, that tranquility ended, as the Las Vegas Raiders dismissed Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler just 21 months after hiring the duo. And while the Raiders are still left to sort out several issues related to the moves − while linebackers coach Antonio Pierce was announced as the interim head coach, it was not immediately clear who would take over McDaniels' role as offensive play-caller − much of the buzz around the league will turn to which coach could be the next to be sent packing.

But other teams might not be as quick to jettison their on-field leader as the Raiders were. Booting a coach around midseason is a drastic measure taken only by organizations willing to concede that the season at hand likely can't be salvaged. If the NFL trade deadline and its relative lack of sellers were any indication, few teams seem prepared to follow that route.

Still, in light of McDaniels' firing, here's our latest look at the NFL coaches on the hot seat (ranked by the likelihood of a potential dismissal by the end of the season):

1. Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

Tuesday's selloff of former cornerstone defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young only further solidified the notion that Rivera's time as steward of this once wayward franchise are coming to an end. At 3-5, the Commanders appear to be pushing off any notion of making an unlikely wild-card push and are instead focusing on their future. This already seemed like a fait accompli when Josh Harris and the new ownership group took over, but Rivera at least deserves – and should receive – the opportunity to finish out his run after helping navigate the ugly final chapter of the Dan Snyder era.

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2. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

Still underachieving. Still squandering late leads. Still getting torn apart by opposing offenses. What's changed for the Chargers in their third year under Staley except for their losing ledger (3-4)? One difference, at least: Los Angeles no longer has the benefit of operating with Justin Herbert on a rookie contract. The 31st-ranked defense, meanwhile, might need wholesale changes. The Bolts seem like a longshot to make any sort of in-season change, but it would be difficult to bring Staley back for another go if the franchise misses the playoffs.

3. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

An 0-4 start and rash of controversies – Justin Fields' pointed words about the coaching staff's responsibility for his "robotic" play, defensive coordinator Alan Williams' resignation and the split from disgruntled underperforming wide receiver Chase Claypool – threatened to send Chicago's season spinning out of control. The Bears, however, have managed to go 2-2 since then, even with undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent stepping in as the starting quarterback for the last three games with Fields sidelined by a dislocated right thumb. Still, with the Bears on track to own two of the top three picks in the upcoming draft, is general manager Ryan Poles content to let Eberflus and his staff develop another potential franchise signal-caller given the rampant problems with Fields' development?

4. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

Yes, the Browns are 4-3 and currently stand as the AFC's No. 7 seed despite Deshaun Watson's continued absence while recovering from a shoulder injury. Still, under the 2020 NFL Coach of the Year, Watson has yet to exhibit anything close to his three-time Pro Bowl form. The star signal-caller and his fully guaranteed $230 million contract aren't going anywhere, so if the Browns miss the postseason for a third consecutive year, Stefanski might be the one to end up paying the price.

5. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Good luck trying to game out how things might go down between the legendary coach and Patriots owner Robert Kraft, as the franchise is in uncharted territory after the 1-5 start marked the worst beginning of any season in Belichick's head-coaching career. An upset over the Buffalo Bills for Belichick's 300th regular-season win was a nice fleeting pick-me-up, but New England came back down to earth with Sunday's 31-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Recall what Kraft said in March at the NFL annual league meeting when asked about Belichick's recent record (while concluding he still believed in the coach): "But in the end, this is a business. You either execute and win or you don’t." Regardless of what comes next for Belichick and Kraft, it's evident that the Patriots right now fall in the later group.

6. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The good vibes of the Buccaneers' 3-1 start are long gone, with a three-game skid sending the franchise a half-game below the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons for the NFC South lead. Maybe that's merely a regression to the mean for a team that wasn't expected to be much of a threat in its first post-Tom Brady campaign, as takeaways and some fortunate breaks helped key their early run. Now, sloppiness has set in, with Tampa Bay committing 11 penalties in its 24-18 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday. If the Buccaneers fade down the stretch, Bowles will surely come under fire, and it might be difficult for him to sell himself as the right person to lead a full reboot.

7. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

This placement isn't a reflection of the Cowboys' 5-2 start or Jerry Jones' current level of commitment to his coach. Rather, it's an acknowledgement that for a franchise still seeking to reach the NFC title game for the first time since 1995, the postseason perennially looms large. Any flameout in the wild-card round – or another playoff embarrassment at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers after a 42-10 thumping in Week 5 – could surely prompt a shift in Jones' stance.